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	<title>WoodlawnPost™ &#187; Rates &amp; Bonds</title>
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		<title>How The Fed&#8217;s QE3 Decision at &#8216;April Meeting&#8217; Effects Families &amp; Investor&#8217;s</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=43597&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-the-feds-qe3-decision-at-april-meeting-effects-families-investors</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Mar 2012 08:49:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rates & Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[How The Fed's QE3 Decision at 'April Meeting' Effects Local Investor's]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pimco’s Gross Says Fed May ‘Hint’ at QE3 at April Meeting]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[DETROIT &#8211; The stock market, economy and unemployment data showed signs of strength. U.S. joblessness has fallen to 8.3 percent, the lowest level in three years, according to the Labor Department. Central bank policy makers upgraded the outlook for the U.S. economy at their March 13 meeting, a factor that lead to the Fed&#8217;s “decision” in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DETROIT &#8211; The stock market, economy and unemployment data showed signs of strength. U.S. joblessness has fallen to <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USURTOT:IND">8.3 percent</a>, the lowest level in three years, according to the Labor Department.</p>
<p>Central bank policy makers upgraded the outlook for the U.S. economy at their March 13 meeting, a factor that lead to the Fed&#8217;s “decision” in not introducing QE3 at it&#8217;s last meeting. They reiterated their pledge to keep <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/interest-rates/">interest rates</a> near zero until at least late 2014.</p>
<h2><em><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong>As Republican Presidential candidates discuss flip flopping, contraceptives, and who&#8217;s the better candidate. The end of tax breaks enacted by Republican President</strong></span> <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/george-w.-bush/">George W. Bush</a><span style="color: #ff0000;"><strong> and $1 trillion of mandatory federal budget cuts are raising concern that declining unemployment will give way to slower economic growth that requires support from the central bank</strong></span>.</span></em></h2>
<p>Policy makers under Chairman <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/ben-s.-bernanke/">Ben S. Bernanke</a> have purchased $2.3 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage debt in two rounds of so- called quantitative easing, known as QE1 and QE2, as they try to sustain the expansion.</p>
<p><a href="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ie9Shid6bAjc.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-43605" title="ie9Shid6bAjc" src="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/ie9Shid6bAjc-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a></p>
<p>Billionaire investor Guru <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/bill-gross/">Bill Gross</a>, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said the <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/federal-reserve/">Federal Reserve</a> will probably signal plans for QE3(debt purchases) in April.</p>
<p>The Fed is “likely to hint” at QE3 at its April 25 gathering, Gross wrote on Twitter.</p>
<p>Pimco’s $252 billion Total Return Fund reduced holdings of Treasuries last month for the first time since February 2011, when it cut its stake in the securities to zero. Gross lowered the proportion of U.S. government securities in the fund to 37 percent of assets from 38 percent in January, according to a report on the company’s <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.pimco-funds.com/Statistics.aspx" rel="external">website</a>. He raised mortgages to 52 from 50 percent.</p>
<p><a href="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/leica_m9p_white_japan.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-43598" title="leica_m9p_white_japan" src="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/leica_m9p_white_japan-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a></p>
<p><em><strong>Introducing QE3</strong></em></p>
<p>If the Fed introduces QE3. It will weaken the US dollar. Oil prices and the metal market&#8217;s will rise in the short-term, raising the price of gasoline this summer. Driving up short-term inflation as a percentage of GDP and potentially hurting investor&#8217;s and consumer&#8217;s short and long-term confidence.</p>
<p>Just like Central Banks, investor&#8217;s need to have the ability to plan a budget. For those investor&#8217;s willing to invest capital. There has to be stability in the market&#8217;s for investor&#8217;s too have long-term confidence in their ability to invest his/her capital.</p>
<p>Just like investor&#8217;s, families need to have the ability to plan a budget. For those families willing to invest disposable income too renovate homes, plan family vacations, college savings, groceries shopping and participate in school activities. There has to be stability in the US dollar for mother&#8217;s and father&#8217;s too invest their capital.</p>
<p><em><strong> </strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong></strong></em><em><strong>Not Introducing QE3</strong></em></p>
<p><a href="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/i_ope8oYibIc.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-43604" title="i_ope8oYibIc" src="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/i_ope8oYibIc-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a></p>
<p>With oil above $100 a barrel since the middle of February, saying no to QE3 short-term, would give the Fed a better outlook and handle for short-term inflation and help investor&#8217;s and consumer confidence.</p>
<p>If the Fed does not introduce QE3. It will strengthen the US dollar, oil prices and the metal market&#8217;s will remain flat in the short-term. This will drive out the speculation in the market&#8217;s and short-term inflation as a percentage of GDP will come down. Considering the Gulf’s US$520bn trade surplus in 2011 was the biggest in the world and almost twice that of nearest competitor China, according to new research. The Fed will need to pull the momentum from the commodities and metal&#8217;s market&#8217;s in the short-term to balance the US trade deficit&#8217;s.</p>
<p>If the Fed does not introduce QE3. That will cause stabilility in the US dollar and have a positive effect on investor&#8217;s willing to invest capital.</p>
<p>By eliminating that invisible inflation tax. This will allow families too allocate more disposable income to family budget planning and actives.</p>
<p>Source: bloomberg.com</p>
<p><strong>To contact the writer responsible for this interview: Adrian Mitchell at </strong><a title="Send E-mail" href="mailto:dscheer@bloomberg.net">woodlawnPost@yahoo.com</a></p>
<p>Follow us on Twitter@<strong><a href="https://twitter.com/#!/WoodlawnPost">WoodlawnPost</a></strong></p>
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		<title>Dubai Has Its Eye On Clearing, Settlement</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=43103&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=dubai-has-its-eye-on-clearing-settlement</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Mar 2012 09:07:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Dubai has its eye on clearing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[settlement]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[DUBAI is set to become the Middle East&#8217;s yuan clearing and settlement center by 2015, a United Arab Emirates government economist said on Tuesday. Starting this year, major UAE banks will offer yuan bank accounts for corporate clients. This will be another step to boost the yuan&#8217;s role in the region, following a currency-swap agreement [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>DUBAI is set to become the Middle East&#8217;s yuan clearing and settlement center by 2015, a United Arab Emirates government economist said on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Starting this year, major UAE banks will offer yuan bank accounts for corporate clients. This will be another step to boost the yuan&#8217;s role in the region, following a currency-swap agreement intended to promote bilateral trade, Nasser Saidi, chief economist of the Dubai International Financial Center, said on Tuesday.</p>
<p>The economist said the yuan will become the third-largest international currency by 2015, and he forecast that it will account for 20 percent of the currency basket for special drawing rights.<a href="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/bank-roll-china-shutterstock-333-300x250.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-43104" title="bank-roll-china-shutterstock-333-300x250" src="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/bank-roll-china-shutterstock-333-300x250-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a></p>
<p>SDRs are supplementary foreign exchange reserve assets defined and maintained by the International Monetary Fund. They represent a claim to currency held by IMF members, for which they may be exchanged.</p>
<p>At present, SDRs can only be exchanged for US dollars, euros, sterling and the yen.</p>
<p align="right"><img id="4642765" title="" src="http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/images/attachement/jpg/site1/20120321/f04da2db112210d3632413.jpg" alt="Dubai has its eye on clearing, settlement" align="right" border="0" /></p>
<p>&#8220;China is now the world&#8217;s biggest exporter and second-largest economy. We need to have increased use of the yuan, not only in trade but also in finance.</p>
<p>&#8220;It is not just China that wants to internationalize its currency. The rest of the world needs the yuan to have a balanced economic structure,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>China and the UAE signed a 35-billion yuan ($5.5 billion) currency swap agreement during Premier Wen Jiabao&#8217;s visit to the country in January, a sign of China&#8217;s growing political and economic ties with the Gulf region.</p>
<p>To promote the yuan&#8217;s internationalization, the government-owned Dubai International Financial Center has set up a payment system that allows clearing and settlements using the Chinese currency.</p>
<p>Dubai&#8217;s latest step has been to encourage its domestic banks to offer yuan accounts. Mashreq Bank PSC, National Bank of Abu Dhabi PJSC and Emirates National Bank of Dubai PJSC have taken steps in that direction, and according to Saidi, they will establish branches in Shanghai by early next year.</p>
<p>According to government figures, China-UAE bilateral trade has grown 35 percent annually over the past decade, reaching $35 billion in 2011. It is expected to reach $100 billion in 2015.</p>
<p>Yuan trading &#8220;now only accounts for 4 percent of our overall trade. Given the vast volume of bilateral trade, there is every reason for the scope to expand rapidly&#8221;, he said.</p>
<p>He said there are good prospects for expanded use of the yuan in financial transactions. China has developed the offshore yuan-denominated bond market (using so-called dim sum bonds), but Saidi said it&#8217;s necessary for the nation to nurture the domestic markets before fully opening up and allowing free capital movement.</p>
<p>&#8220;The 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) calls for flexibility of the yuan, but the most important thing is the sequence of the reform.</p>
<p>&#8220;I expect that by 2015, the debt markets in China should be equivalent to about 30 percent of GDP to hit around 31 trillion yuan,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>As financially resourceful investors, the Gulf countries are seeking alternative high-yield investments beyond the European and North American markets. To that end, Saidi called for more Chinese companies to list in Dubai to diversify their investments into high-growth countries.</p>
<p>UAE companies, especially in the energy and real estate sectors, have shown an interest in listing in China once the international board in Shanghai opens, he added.</p>
<p>The internationalization of the yuan should proceed at its own pace and avoid rapid appreciation of the currency, according to Tse Yung-hoi, deputy chief executive officer of Bank of China International Holdings Ltd.</p>
<p>Tse said it&#8217;s critical to establish a good currency backflow mechanism and a well-rounded offshore center.</p>
<p>Source: chinadaily.com.cn</p>
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		<title>Buying 100-year bonds looks like a gilt-edged way to lose money</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=42334&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=buying-100-year-bonds-looks-like-a-gilt-edged-way-to-lose-money</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 15 Mar 2012 05:42:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rates & Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buying 100-year bonds looks like a gilt-edged way to lose money]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Gilts might look like a safe option, but they carry real risk for investors Buying 100-year bonds from the British Government when interest rates are at historic lows looks like a gilt-edged way to lose money, as dismal returns on War Loan stock demonstrate. Gilts – or bonds issued by the British Government – which pay a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="attachment_100015555"><a href="http://woodlawnpost.com/?attachment_id=100015555" rel="attachment wp-att-100015555"><img title="sterling_1496511c" src="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/files/2012/03/sterling_1496511c.jpg" alt="Gilts" width="460" height="281" /></a>Gilts might look like a safe option, but they carry real risk for investors</p>
</div>
<p>Buying <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/gilts/9141842/Britain-to-offer-100-year-gilts.html">100-year bonds from the British Government </a>when interest rates are at historic lows looks like a gilt-edged way to lose money, as dismal returns on War Loan stock demonstrate.</p>
<p>Gilts – or bonds issued by the British Government – which pay a fixed rate of interest may appear to be as safe as the Bank of England. But they are <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100013190/savers-lose-43bn-in-%E2%80%98slow-motion-bank-robbery%E2%80%99-with-worse-to-come/">vulnerable to any increase in inflation in the period before they are redeemed because this will reduce the real value or purchasing power of both the coupon or income they pay and their maturity value on redemption.</a></p>
<p>CONTINUE READING:</p>
<p>Link: <a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100015553/buying-100-year-bonds-looks-like-a-gilt-edged-way-to-lose-money/">http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100015553/buying-100-year-bonds-looks-like-a-gilt-edged-way-to-lose-money/</a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>China Reduces Holdings Of US Govt Bonds</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=41028&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=china-reduces-holdings-of-us-govt-bonds</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Mar 2012 07:51:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rates & Bonds]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[BEIJING &#8211; China has made the first annual reduction in its holdings of US Treasury bonds in a decade. Experts are viewing the move as a sign that the country is accelerating the move away from dollar assets in search of more diversified investment channels. According to the latest monthly figures from the US Treasury [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>BEIJING &#8211; China has made the first annual reduction in its holdings of US Treasury bonds in a decade. Experts are viewing the move as a sign that the country is accelerating the move away from dollar assets in search of more diversified investment channels.</p>
<p>According to the latest monthly figures from the US Treasury Department, China&#8217;s holdings of US Treasury bonds dropped for a fifth consecutive month in Dec to $1.15 trillion.</p>
<p>The number was an update of a figure released in February, after the US department adjusted its method of collecting data on foreign holdings of US government bonds, a move aimed at obtaining more information about the use of proxies buying and holding US securities.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p align="right"><img id="4593833" src="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/attachement/jpg/site1/20120303/0013729c013e10bbb4ce04.jpg" alt="China reduces holdings of US govt bonds" align="right" /></p>
<p>As a result, China&#8217;s June holdings of US Treasury securities have been amended to $1.31 trillion instead of $1.17 trillion. The figure at the end of 2011 was $51 billion higher than the previous calculation.</p>
<p>According to the revised data, China cut its holdings of US debt by $8.2 billion in 2011 compared with the previous year. It was the first time that the country had reduced its yearly holdings since 2001.</p>
<p>The country remains the largest foreign holder of US treasuries, but analysts suggest that China&#8217;s $3.2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves means that the country is beginning to rapidly diversify its portfolio of foreign currencies.</p>
<p>Senior Chinese officials, including the central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan, have repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification of China&#8217;s foreign-exchange reserves to minimize the negative impact of fluctuations in the international financial markets.</p>
<p>The latest figure &#8220;clearly indicates China&#8217;s intention not to put all its eggs in one basket&#8221;, said Lu Feng, director of Peking University&#8217;s China Macroeconomic Research Center, according to quotes in the Wall Street Journal.</p>
<p>&#8220;The Chinese government has reiterated that it will be actively involved in supporting the troubled euro area. With China&#8217;s holdings of US debt declining, plans for Europe may be already in progress,&#8221; said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia-Pacific economist with Mizuho Securities Co Ltd.</p>
<p>The reduction of dollar assets coupled with the ambitions in the eurozone can be interpreted as an important step by Chinese foreign-exchange regulators to promote the diversification of reserves, Shen said.</p>
<p>China has many reasons to reduce its exposure to the US dollar, such as low yields and the monetary-easing measures adopted by the US government, which could lead to inflation that could erode the value of those holdings, said Wei Liang, a researcher with the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.</p>
<p>The increasing volume of outbound investment may also have indirectly affected the amount of money invested in US debt, Wei said.</p>
<p>&#8220;US debt has been a safe haven for capital amid the global economic crisis, but as we see growth come back on track, investors may pull out in favor of other investment channels,&#8221; he said.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-03/03/content_14746532.htm">http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-03/03/content_14746532.htm</a></p>
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		<title>Gold Falls as Fed Offers No New Stimulus</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=40741&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=gold-falls-as-fed-offers-no-new-stimulus</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Feb 2012 18:20:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Gold Falls as Fed Offers No New Stimulus]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK &#8211; Gold plunged, heading for the biggest decline this year, on expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from taking new action to bolster the economy. Silver slumped the most since December. The dollar rebounded after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, in congressional testimony, gave no signal that the central bank is considering additional measures to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK &#8211; Gold plunged, heading for the biggest decline this year, on expectations that the <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/federal-reserve/">Federal Reserve</a> will refrain from taking new action to bolster the economy. Silver slumped the most since December.</p>
<p>The dollar rebounded after Fed Chairman <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/ben-s.-bernanke/">Ben S. Bernanke</a>, in congressional testimony, gave no signal that the central bank is considering additional measures to spur the economy. He said the inflation outlook is “subdued.” The greenback gained as much as 0.5 percent against a basket of competing currencies. Before today, gold prices climbed 14 percent this year, compared with a 10 percent gain in 2011.</p>
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<div>
<p><a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/gold-falls-most-this-year-as-fed-gives-no-signs-/156393.html" rel="#156393" target="_blank"><img src="http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iUNXJymB7SAo.jpg" alt="Gold Falls Most This Year as Fed Gives No Signs " /></a></p>
</div>
<p>Gold bars. Photographer: Michal Cizek/AFP/Getty Images</p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p>“People were expecting that the Fed would loosen policies, even if the perception is that the economy is doing well,” James Dailey, who manages $215 million at TEAM Financial Management LLC in Harrisburg, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/pennsylvania/">Pennsylvania</a>, said by telephone. “The investor sentiment changed as the Fed committed to nothing. This is the manic nature of the market.”</p>
<p>Gold futures for April delivery fell 3.3 percent to $1,730 an ounce at 12:14 p.m. on the Comex in New York. A close at that price would mark the biggest drop since Dec. 14.</p>
<p>“The market is very, very disappointed as there is no mention of any additional stimulus,” Fain Shaffer, the president of Infinity Trading Corp. in Medford, Oregon, said in a telephone interview.</p>
<h2>Expecting Correction</h2>
<p>The <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/u.s.-economy/">U.S. economy</a> expanded at a 3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, more than forecast, as companies rebuilt inventories in anticipation of growing demand. Before today, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/gold-prices/">gold prices</a> gained 2.8 percent this month.</p>
<p>The most widely held options contracts give holders the right to buy at $2,200 by August, exchange data show.</p>
<p>“The market is a bit too long and we should be expecting a correction before going back up,”<a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/afshin-nabavi/">Afshin Nabavi</a>, a senior vice president at bullion refiner MKS Finance SA in Geneva, said today by telephone.</p>
<p>Silver futures for May delivery slumped 5.1 percent to $35.315 an ounce, heading for the biggest decline since Dec. 14. Earlier, they touched $37.58, the highest price since Sept. 22. The metal gained 12 percent this month through yesterday.</p>
<p>On the New York Mercantile Exchange, platinum and palladium also retreated.</p>
<p>Source: <a title="Send E-mail" href="mailto:droy5@bloomberg.net">bloomberg.comt</a></p>
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		<title>Italian police seize $6 trillion of fake US bonds in Switzerland</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=39253&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=italian-police-seize-6-trillion-of-fake-us-bonds-in-switzerland</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Feb 2012 18:37:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Italian police seize $6 trillion of fake US bonds in Switzerland]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Italian police have seized about $6 trillion of fake US Treasury bonds in Switzerland, and issued arrest warrants for eight people accused of international fraud and other financial crimes.  The operation, co-ordinated by prosecutors from the southern Italian city of Potenza, was carried out by Italian and Swiss authorities after a year-long investigation, an Italian [...]]]></description>
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<h2>Italian police have seized about $6 trillion of fake US Treasury bonds in Switzerland, and issued arrest warrants for eight people accused of international fraud and other financial crimes.</h2>
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<div><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02142/dollar_2142217b.jpg" alt="Twenty Dollar Bills Are Printed At The Bureau of Engraving and Printing" width="620" height="388" /></p>
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<div> The operation, co-ordinated by prosecutors from the southern Italian city of Potenza, was carried out by Italian and Swiss authorities after a year-long investigation, an Italian police source said.</div>
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<p>The fake securities, more than a third of US national debt, were seized in January from a Swiss trust company where they were held in three large trunks.</p>
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<p>The eight alleged fraudsters are accused of counterfeiting bonds, credit card forgery, and usury in the Italian regions of Lombardy, Piedmont, Lazio and Basilicata, police said.</p>
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<p>The Swiss Federal Prosecutor&#8217;s office said Zurich state prosecutors had worked on the investigation at the request of the Italian prosecutor. The Swiss handed over their findings in July of last year.</p>
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<p>In 2009, Italian financial police seized $742bn of fake US bearer bonds in the northern Italian town of Chiasso, near the Swiss border.</p>
<p>Source: telegraph.co.uk/</p>
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		<title>Buffett: Bonds Are Among Most Dangerous Assets</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=38571&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=buffett-bonds-are-among-most-dangerous-assets</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Feb 2012 09:56:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rates & Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Buffett: Bonds Are Among Most Dangerous Assets]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Warren Buffett, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said low interest rates and inflation should dissuade investors from buying bonds and other holdings tied to currencies. “They are among the most dangerous of assets,” Buffett said in an adaptation of his annual letter to shareholders that appeared today on Fortune magazine’s website. “Over the past century [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/iyMkioj7sKD8.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-38572" title="iyMkioj7sKD8" src="http://woodlawnpost.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/iyMkioj7sKD8.jpg" alt="" width="333" height="500" /></a><a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/warren-buffett/">Warren Buffett</a>, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said low interest rates and inflation should dissuade investors from buying bonds and other holdings tied to currencies.</p>
<p>“They are among the most dangerous of assets,” Buffett said in an adaptation of his <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/" rel="external">annual letter</a> to shareholders that appeared today on Fortune magazine’s website. “Over the past century these instruments have destroyed the purchasing power of investors in many countries, even as these holders continued to receive timely payments of interest and principal.”</p>
<p>Buffett, 81, who built Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire from a failing textile maker into a firm selling insurance, energy and jewelry through acquisitions and stock picks, echoed Laurence D. Fink, chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc. Fink said this week that investors should be 100 percent in equities, because of depressed stock valuations and the <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/federal-reserve/">Federal Reserve</a>’s pledge to keep <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FDTR:IND">interest rates</a> low.</p>
<p>“High <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/interest-rates/">interest rates</a>, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments &#8212; and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely,” Buffett wrote. “Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label.”</p>
<p>The Fed has kept borrowing costs near zero, and said last month that economic conditions may warrant “exceptionally low levels” for rates through at least late 2014 to boost the economy and put more Americans back to work. Buffett said other currency-based investments that may pose a risk include money- market funds, mortgages and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/bank-deposits/">bank deposits</a>.</p>
<h2>IBM, Coca-Cola</h2>
<p>Berkshire still holds bonds, primarily Treasuries, for liquidity, and has a preference to invest in companies by buying them outright or acquiring stock, Buffett said. The firm purchased Lubrizol Corp. for about $9 billion and took a more than $10 billion stake in International Business Machines Corp. last year.</p>
<p>Berkshire had more than $68 billion of <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BRK%2FA:US">equities</a> as of Sept. 30 including the largest stakes in Coca-Cola Co. and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/wells-fargo-%26-co/">Wells Fargo &amp; Co</a>., the biggest U.S. bank by market value. Fixed-maturity investments of about $34 billion included holdings of government debt, corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities. <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BRK/A%3AUS">Cash (BRK/A)</a> and cash equivalents were about $34.8 billion.</p>
<p>The Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 7.3 percent this year through yesterday after being little changed in 2011. <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND">Yields (USGG10YR)</a> on 10-year Treasuries rose above 2 percent for the first time in two weeks yesterday after touching a record low of 1.67 percent in September.</p>
<h2>‘The Fearful’</h2>
<p>Buffett said investors should avoid gold, because its uses are limited and it doesn’t have the potential of farmland or companies to produce new wealth. Achieving a long-term gain on the metal requires an “expanding pool of buyers” who believe the group will increase further, he said.</p>
<p>“What motivates most gold purchasers is their belief that the ranks of the fearful will grow,” he wrote. “During the past decade that belief has proved correct. Beyond that, the rising price has on its own generated additional buying enthusiasm, attracting purchasers who see the rise as validating an investment thesis. As ‘bandwagon’ investors join any party, they create their own truth &#8212; for a while.”</p>
<p>Gold prices have climbed to more than $1,700 an ounce from less than $300 in the last decade, as investors sought safety in bullion.</p>
<p>Buffett uses his annual letter to Berkshire shareholders to opine on the economy, the firm’s operating units, corporate governance and other issues. The full document accompanies financial statements and will probably be released later this month.</p>
<p>Source: <a title="Send E-mail" href="mailto:nbuhayar@bloomberg.net">bloomberg.com</a></p>
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		<title>UK Debt Passes £1 Trillion For The 1st Time</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=36890&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=uk-debt-passes-1-trillion-for-the-first-time</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Jan 2012 18:26:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Banking]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[UK debt passes £1 trillion for the first time]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[UK debt passes £1 trillion for the first time The UK Treasury has blamed &#8220;unsustainable&#8221; levels of spending by the last Labour government for public debt rising above £1 trillion for the first time. Public sector net debt excluding financial interventions, such as bank bail-outs, rose to £1.004 trillion in December, as the Government borrowed [...]]]></description>
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<h1>UK debt passes £1 trillion for the first time</h1>
<h2>The UK Treasury has blamed &#8220;unsustainable&#8221; levels of spending by the last Labour government for public debt rising above £1 trillion for the first time.</h2>
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<p>Public sector net debt excluding financial interventions, such as bank bail-outs, rose to £1.004 trillion in December, as the Government borrowed nearly £14bn last month despite its continued austerity drive.</p>
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<p>The £1 trillion figure was the highest since records began in 1993, and represents 64pc of GDP. The Treasury has not recorded an annual surplus since 2001/02, when it repaid £243m into the nation&#8217;s coffers.</p>
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<p>The Government has forecast that servicing Britain&#8217;s debt will cost £47.6bn in the current financial year, rising to £65.5bn in 2016/17.</p>
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<p>A Treasury spokesman said: &#8220;That our national debt has reached more than £1 trillion simply shows the unsustainable level of spending this country built up over the past few years, and shows why it is critical for our nation&#8217;s future that we deal decisively with the deficit.&#8221;</p>
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<p>The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said it expected the figure to ease back in January due to tax inflows, but to rise again in February.</p>
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<h2><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px; font-weight: normal;">However, borrowing in December came in lower than expected, putting Chancellor George Osborne further ahead of a target set by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to bring borrowing down by £10bn to £127bn this financial year.</span></h2>
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<p>The ONS said that public sector net borrowing, excluding financial interventions fell to £13.7bn in December, down from £15.9bn in the same period in 2010.</p>
<p>David Gauke, Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury, said: &#8220;It’s important that we get the public finances under control. The good news today is that borrowing is 10pc lower than it was last year.</p>
<p>&#8220;Nonetheless we’ve got a long way to go. Borrowing is still too high, debt is continuing to increase, and it’s important hat we take action to get borrowing down.&#8221;</p>
<p>Markets were largely muted on a day when <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9034436/Debt-crisis-live.html"><strong>investors were more concerned with developments in Greece</strong></a>. The UK&#8217;s benchmark FTSE 100 index fell 0.8pc to 5,737.09 in mid-afternoon trade.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02112/stpancras_2112625b.jpg" alt="St Pancras Renaissance Hotel and Chambers" width="620" height="388" /></p>
<p>Vicky Redwood, senior economist at Capital Economics, said that the £1 trillion figure was &#8220;a reminder of the enormity of the challenge that still lies ahead to get the public finances back on a sustainable footing.&#8221;</p>
<p>She added: &#8220;We expect weaker growth than the OBR is forecasting to make its future borrowing forecasts much harder to meet. Indeed, so far, it has been weaker spending growth helping borrowing to fall, whereas tax receipts are falling short of the fiscal forecasts.&#8221;</p>
<p>Stalling growth saw the Chancellor revise the UK&#8217;s borrowing forecasts in last year&#8217;s Autumn Statement. Borrowing is now expected to be £5bn more this financial year than originally forecast, £19bn higher next year and £30bn higher in 2013-14.</p>
<p>The OBR also said in November that downward revisions to its growth forecasts meant that the deficit would also shrink less quickly over the next five years.</p>
<p>Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight, said: &#8220;There remains a very real danger that the Chancellor will before long face the difficult decision of accepting further slippage in his fiscal targets or imposing more fiscal tightening on a struggling economy.&#8221;</p>
<p>Most economists expect official GDP figures released on Wednesday to show the UK economy contracted during the final quarter of 2011.</p>
<p>Growth is expected to have fallen 0.1pc in the three months to December according to a <em>Bloomberg</em> poll, compared with a 0.6pc rise during the third quarter.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jobs/9033846/UK-risks-new-recession-on-weak-jobs-market-says-ILO.html"><strong>International Labour Organisation (ILO) warned on Monday</strong></a>that Britain risks falling back into recession because of an &#8220;unabated&#8221; weakening of the jobs market, while the Ernst &amp; Young ITEM Club and the Centre for Economics and Business Research believe that the UK is already in recession.</p>
<p>Source: telegraph.co.uk/</p>
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		<title>Standard and Poor&#8217;s set to downgrade France&#8217;s AAA rating</title>
		<link>http://woodlawnpost.com/?p=35912&#038;utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=standard-and-poors-set-to-downgrade-frances-aaa-rating</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Jan 2012 19:14:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Standard and Poor's set to downgrade France's AAA rating]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[19.05 BREAKING It&#8217;s official. France&#8217;s finance minister Francois Baroin has confirmed that the country&#8217;s rating will be downgraded one notch to AA+. 18.45 Greek interim PM Lucas Papademos spoke today on the pressing need for an agreement between the country and its creditors on a 50pc writedown of it debt. According to an emailed transcript, he said: We are fully [...]]]></description>
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<div><strong>19.05 BREAKING</strong></div>
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<p>It&#8217;s official. France&#8217;s finance minister<strong> Francois Baroin</strong> has confirmed that the country&#8217;s rating will be downgraded one notch to AA+.</p>
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<p><strong>18.45 </strong>Greek interim PM <strong>Lucas Papademos</strong> spoke today on the pressing need for an agreement between the country and its creditors on a 50pc writedown of it debt.</p>
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<p>According to an emailed transcript, he said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />We are fully aware of how critical the situation is [...] Until these processes are completed, the private sector involvement and the vote on the new loan accord, the country continues to face acute economic risks. Only once these two processes are completed can we say Greece is on firmer footing.</em></p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02104/Greece_New_2104915c.jpg" alt="" name="Greece_New" width="460" height="287" /></p>
<p><strong>18.40 Mr Fuchs </strong>added (<em>Reuters</em> reported speech):</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />The situation was another reminder for Europe that it needs its own independent ratings agency.</em></p>
<p>Ratings agency <strong>Fitch</strong> is <strong>French</strong> owned. <strong><a href="http://www.fitchratings.com/web/en/dynamic/about-us/about-us.jsp">On Fitch&#8217;s website</a></strong> it says (my emphasis):</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Dual-headquartered in New York and London with 51 offices worldwide, Fitch Ratings is a global rating agency dedicated to providing value beyond the rating through <strong>independent</strong> and prospective credit opinions, research and data.</em></p>
<p>This week <strong>Fitch</strong> said that it would <strong>NOT</strong> downgrade <strong>France</strong> before 2013 unless there were &#8220;important shocks&#8221;.</p>
<p>Yes, of course Europe needs more of &#8216;those&#8217; independent ratings agencies.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s <strong><a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100013870/in-defence-of-the-french/">Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on why Mr Fuchs&#8217; argument is wrong</a></strong>.</p>
<p><strong>18.32 </strong>Oh dear, oh dear. First <strong>France</strong>, now <strong>Germany </strong>has had a swipe at<strong>Britain</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>Michael Fuchs</strong>, a senior German legislator has accused <strong>S&amp;P</strong> of &#8220;playing politics&#8221;, and has said that the ratings agency should also slash the UK&#8217;s credit rating if it downgrades France, because of our higher debt and deficit.</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />This step is out of order [...] Standard and Poor&#8217;s must stop playing politics&#8230;why doesn&#8217;t it act on the highly indebted United States or highly indebted Britain? [...] If the agency downgrades France, it should also downgrade Britain in order to be consistent.</em></p>
<p>he told <em>Reuters.</em></p>
<p><strong>18.28 </strong>News on <strong>Italy</strong>:</p>
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<p><strong>18.20 </strong>Meanwhile, <em>AFP</em> are reporting that French President <strong>Nicolas Sarkozy</strong> has held crisis talks with ministers ahead of the <strong>S&amp;P</strong>downgrade:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Prime Minister Francois Fillon, Finance Minister Francois Baroin and Budget Minister Valerie Pecresse went into the talks at Sarkozy&#8217;s Elysee palace after EU government sources said France was to lose its prized AAA rating.</em></p>
<p><strong>18.15 </strong>While this eurozone game of downgrades continues, <strong>Greece</strong>faces the very real prospect of not being able to pay its debts. Talks between the country and its creditors broke-off today to &#8220;pause for reflection&#8221;.</p>
<p>The <strong>International Monetary Fund</strong> has just released a statement. An<strong>IMF</strong> spokeswoman said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />We look forward to the resumption of talks between Greece and its creditors. It is important that this lead [sic] to a PSI agreement that, together with the efforts of the official sector, ensures debt sustainability.</em></p>
<p><strong>17.59 </strong>Meanwhile, German Chancellor <strong>Angela Merkel</strong>, presumably basking in the glory of her AAA rating, has been telling other eurozone countries to “do their homework” and anchor debt limits to halt a steady increase in public debt:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Every member of the of the eurozone must have a debt brake in its constitution or similar legislation, so that leaders don’t use elections or other opportunities according to their mood to live beyond their means.</em></p>
<p>She told a regional party rally today.</p>
<p><strong>17.56 </strong>Telling statement from <strong>Sarkozy&#8217;s</strong> office reported on <em>Reuters</em>:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" /></em>RTRS-FRANCE&#8217;S SARKOZY COMMITED TO TAKING STRONG DECISIONS IN COMING WEEKS TO SUPPORT GROWTH, COMPETITIVENESS -SARKOZY&#8217;S OFFICE.</p>
<p>Again, no denials.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02103/nic_2103364c.jpg" alt="" name="nic" width="460" height="288" /></p>
<p><sub>French President Nicolas Sarkozy (Photo: AFP/Getty)</sub></p>
<p><strong>17.50 Kathleen Brooks</strong>, research director at Forex.com suggests five points to consider ahead of the &#8220;downgrades&#8221;:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />1, Markets seem to be prepared for a one notch downgrade, but not a 2-notch downgrade of France. So a larger downgrade could cause the markets to sell euro and French bonds in the short-term.</em></p>
<p><em>2, If France loses its triple A what does this mean for Sarkozy and the April Presidential elections? It won’t do his approval ratings any good and could give Hollande a boost. However, the markets may not react well to a Socialist French President especially when France needs urgent structural economic reforms to bring its public finances under control. This could weigh on French bonds in the medium-term.</em></p>
<p><em>3, What does this mean for the EFSF – could it be downgraded too thus making financing the bailout fund more expensive?</em></p>
<p><em>4, If Italy is downgraded 2 notches by S&amp;P then it may get into the B bracket – the lowest investment grade category. Could this cause bond clearance house LCH Clearnet to up its margin requirements? If yes, this could cause another wave of selling Italian bonds, putting more pressure on yields…</em></p>
<p><em>5, The real test of market sentiment post the ratings action by S&amp;P could come next week. On Monday France wants to sell 8.7bn euro of debt. Spain, the EFSF and Germany are also planning on selling debt.</em></p>
<p><em>Either way, it will be a tense market open on Sunday/ Monday when European markets come back to work…</em></p>
<p><strong>17.43 </strong>Here&#8217;s our very own <strong>Jeremy Warner</strong> on the implications of a French downgrade. In his view, the loss of its AAA rating could even mean France defaults on its debt.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>17.30 </strong>Hot off the press from European Council president <strong>Herman van Rompuy</strong>:</p>
<p><iframe id="tweetframe1578759579386593293874689671326475878" src="http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/html/TwitterEmbed/Version1/web550.html" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" width="460" height="133"></iframe></p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/127210.pdf">The announcement</a></strong> comes despite a planned general strike on the same day to protest against new austerity measures.</p>
<p><strong>17.24 Bruno </strong>directs me to <strong><a href="http://www.lesechos.fr/economie-politique/monde/actu/0201841233930-la-france-va-etre-degradee-d-un-cran-par-s-p-274903.php">this article on French daily Les Echos</a></strong>, which reports <strong>S&amp;P</strong> cutting <strong>France</strong> and <strong>Austria</strong> (both AAA) by 1 notch, and <strong>Italy</strong> (A), <strong>Spain </strong>(AA-) and <strong>Portugal </strong>(BBB-) by 2 notches.</p>
<p>If true, <strong>Portugal</strong> would be downgraded to non-investment grade by<strong>S&amp;P</strong>.</p>
<p>In other words, junk.</p>
<p><em>Les Echos</em> added that <strong>Germany</strong>, <strong>The Netherlands</strong>, <strong>Finland </strong>and<strong>Luxembourg </strong>would escape downgrades.</p>
<p>All are AAA rated.</p>
<p><strong>17.19 </strong>And Brussels correspondent <strong>Bruno Waterfield&#8217;s </strong>take on <strong>Nicolas Sarkozy&#8217;s</strong> reaction:</p>
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<p><strong>17.12 </strong>This from the <em>Wall Street Journal </em>on the <strong>French</strong> downgrade:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Standard &amp; Poor’s Ratings Services has notified the French government of its decision to downgrade the country’s credit rating, a senior French government official said Friday, a move that marks the long-awaited blow to France’s international standing and knocks the country out of the top financial league of the euro zone.</em></p>
<p><em>S&amp;P has informed the French government that the country’s cherished triple-A rating will be lowered one notch to AA+.</em></p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01866/bell_1866674a.gif" alt="" name="bell" width="45" height="40" align="left" /><strong>17.06</strong> Europe&#8217;s stock markets have closed.</p>
<p>The <strong>FTSE 100 </strong>in London slipped 0.46pc to 5,636.64, while the<strong>CAC 40 </strong>in Paris finished down 0.1pc at 3,196.49 and the <strong>DAX 30</strong> in Frankfurt fell 0.6pc to 6,143.08.</p>
<p><strong>16.57 </strong>Any downgrades would also tarnish the credibility of the<strong>European Financial Stability Facility </strong>(EFSF), the eurozone&#8217;s €440bn bail-out fund that <strong>Angela Merkel</strong> and<strong> Nicolas Sarkozy</strong> fought so hard to secure (and the one that was nearly brought down by Slovakia).</p>
<p>If <strong>France </strong>loses its AAA rating, then <strong>Germany </strong>would be the only top-rated main backer left. The <strong>EFSF</strong> is also currently on downgrade review. In December, <strong>S&amp;P</strong> said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Our &#8216;AAA&#8217; long- and &#8216;A-1+&#8217; short-term ratings on EFSF are based on (i) the unconditional, irrevocable, and timely guarantees from EFSF members (guarantor members) rated &#8216;AAA&#8217; by Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s that support EFSF&#8217;s obligations (bonds, notes, commercial paper, debt securities, or other financing arrangements) and, (ii) the &#8216;AAA&#8217; rated securities that constitute EFSF&#8217;s liquidity reserves. Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s has placed the &#8216;AAA&#8217; long-term issue ratings on EFSF&#8217;s guarantor members Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and The Netherlands on CreditWatch negative (see &#8220;Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s Puts Ratings On Eurozone Sovereigns On CreditWatch With Negative Implications,&#8221; published on Dec. 5, 2011), indicating our view of their increased credit risks.</em></p>
<p>In other words, the <strong>EFSF</strong> is only as good as its backers.</p>
<p><strong>16.51 Greece</strong> has €14.435bn of debt that needs to be refinanced in March. Tick tock.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/greece2_2108634c.jpg" alt="" name="greece2" width="460" height="287" /></p>
<p><strong>16.40 </strong>OK, here&#8217;s the last two hours in a few sentences:</p>
<p><strong>• Standard and Poor&#8217;s</strong>, the ratings agency, is rumoured to downgrade several eurozone nations at around 8pm GMT.</p>
<p><strong>• France</strong> top of the list to be cut by one notch, according to several sources. The rest of the eurozone is also on the danger list &#8211; apart from the <strong>Netherlands </strong>and <strong>Germany</strong>, which are said to keep their prized AAA ratings.</p>
<p><strong>•</strong> <strong>S&amp;P</strong> aren&#8217;t commenting, neither are the <strong>French </strong>government.</p>
<p><strong>• </strong>Meanwhile, talks between <strong>Greece</strong> and its creditors have broken down.<strong>S&amp;P </strong>chatter has largely overshadowed this news, but it is clear that if the two parties do not reach accord, it will not get its next aid tranche, and<strong>Greece</strong> faces disorderly default in March.</p>
<p>And that would be bad.</p>
<p><strong>16.23 </strong>US markets are closed on Monday for the <strong>Martin Luther King</strong>holiday. Expect traders to take risk off the table, downgrades or not.</p>
<p>Both the <strong>Dow</strong> and <strong>S&amp;P 500 </strong>are currently trading 0.8pc lower.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/sandp_2108599c.jpg" alt="" name="sandp" width="460" height="287" /></p>
<p><sub>Traders assess their positions at the New York Stock Exchange in this file photo (Photo: AP)</sub></p>
<p><strong>16.20 </strong>All major stock markets bar <strong>Spain&#8217;s IBEX</strong> index are now in the red, although the drop is more of a nervous retreat than a Jean-Claude Van Damme style dive out of danger.</p>
<p><strong>Angus Campbell </strong>at Capital Spreads, said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />The bulls were blown out of the water today as it gradually became more apparent that rumours of credit ratings downgrades to a number of European countries were true. The fact that these rumours included France, the second biggest economy and one of the driving forces behind the whole European project made the rumours even more distasteful for investors. The downgrades are expected after European markets have closed which is why so many people rushed for the exit and so now we have almost completely wiped out the gains for 2012 that bulls seemed to have worked so hard for.</em></p>
<p><em>There is a chance however that we might see a case of “sell the rumour buy the fact” as indices have bounced off their lows and its not as if investors haven’t already been made aware that Europe’s countries could be downgraded. Even the likes of France had been put on credit downgrade watch by a number of the credit ratings agencies, so the sharp sell off might have been a bit of an overreaction.</em></p>
<p><strong>16.08 </strong>More chatter:</p>
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<p><strong>S&amp;P</strong> are known for their late-night downgrades. The last major downgrade on <strong>America</strong> hit my inbox at around 1am.</p>
<p><strong>16.01</strong> Investors are diving for safety. While <strong>France</strong>, <strong>Italy</strong>, <strong>Spain</strong>,<strong>Belgium </strong>and <strong>Austria </strong>have all seen their ten-year borrowing costs tick up, the rumours have pushed <strong>British</strong> borrowing costs near all-time lows.</p>
<p>Yields on ten-year gilts have fallen of 1.952pc &#8211; just off the all-time lows of 1.93pc achieved on December 30.</p>
<p>Borrowing costs in <strong>Finland</strong> and the<strong> Netherlands</strong> have also fallen. And surprisingly, it&#8217;s also a good time to be a PIG, or should I say GIP.</p>
<p><strong>Greece</strong>, <strong>Portugal</strong> and <strong>Ireland</strong> have also seen benchmark borrowing costs fall.</p>
<p><strong>15.55 </strong>Another interesting question posed by zerohedge on Twitter:</p>
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<p><strong>Italy</strong> is currently rated &#8220;<strong>A</strong>&#8221; by S&amp;P. It was last downgraded in September.</p>
<p><strong>15.50 </strong>French television also say <strong>France </strong>is on course for a downgrade.</p>
<p><strong>15.43 </strong>A spokesman for <strong>Nicolas Sarkozy</strong> has also declined to comment. Up until today, ministers and spokesmen have been vociferous in their denials. Just this week, we had denials directly from finance minister<strong>Francois Baroin </strong>on separate rumours.</p>
<p>Today, silence speaks volumes.</p>
<p><strong>15.41</strong> And more comments from Markit&#8217;s <strong>Gavan Nolan</strong>:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Germany and France are, of course, the fulcrum of the eurozone and will be the main concern. It would be a major surprise if any action was taken on Germany. France, on the other hand, is a different matter. It would be even more of a shock if it wasn’t on S&amp;P’s hit list. The peripherals (excluding Greece, already CC) and possibly Belgium could also be in the firing line. All conjecture and we probably won’t know until after the market close if there is any credence to the rumours.</em></p>
<p><strong>15.37 </strong>This from <strong>Bruno Waterfield</strong> in Brussels:</p>
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<p><strong>15.32 </strong>Rumours about the rumours are coming thick and fast:</p>
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<p><strong>15.27 </strong>And it&#8217;s a &#8220;no comment&#8221; from <strong>S&amp;P </strong>on the downgrade rumours. The chap who usually deals with sovereign ratings enquiries is &#8220;travelling on business&#8221; this week.</p>
<p>Perhaps he booked a ticket to the Continent.</p>
<p><strong>15.22 Greece&#8217;s </strong>bank creditors are in no mood for a haircut.</p>
<p>The <strong>Institute of International Finance</strong> (IIF), which represents the banks, said talks with the government have “paused for reflection” after discussions failed to produce a “constructive consolidated response by all parties.”</p>
<p>In a statement, the<strong> IIF</strong> added it was ready to “re-engage constructively with the private sector”.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01790/mainpic_1790502c.jpg" alt="" name="mainpic" width="460" height="287" /></p>
<p><strong>15.11<em> </em></strong><em>Reuters</em> is now reporting that <strong>Slovakia</strong> is one of the countries in line for a downgrade.</p>
<p><strong>15.05 </strong><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/twitter_1817835a.gif" alt="Twitter" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Follow <strong><a href="http://twitter.com/larmitstead">Louise Armitstead on Twitter</a></strong> for more market musings and breaking news.</p>
<p>Of course, we&#8217;ll be here too. It could be a long evening.</p>
<p><strong>15.03 </strong>While our own chief business correspondent <strong>Louise Armitstead</strong>highlights this from WSJ&#8217;s <strong>Charles Forelle</strong>:</p>
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<p><strong>15.00 </strong>Interesting observation from<em> FT</em> Markets editor <strong>Christopher Adams</strong>:</p>
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<p><strong>14.42 </strong>Just to recap what all this downgrade talk means:</p>
<p><strong>• </strong>Back in December, <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8937162/SandP-threat-of-rating-cuts-may-hit-eurozone-rescue.html">S&amp;P put 15 out of 17 eurozone nations on “credit-watch negative”</a></strong>. In other words &#8211; it was reviewing these countries&#8217; creditworthiness.</p>
<p><strong>• </strong>Of the other two countries, <strong>Cyprus</strong> is already on &#8220;credit watch negative,&#8221; while <strong>Greece</strong> is considered &#8220;junk&#8221; by <strong>S&amp;P</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>• </strong>There are six eurozone countries currently AAA rated. These are<strong>Austria</strong>,<strong> Luxembourg</strong>, <strong>Germany</strong>, <strong>France</strong>, <strong>The Netherlands</strong> and<strong>Finland</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>• France </strong>is top of the list to lose its prized AAA rating. Fitch, which is carrying out a similar review, said this week that <strong>France</strong> <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9005683/Fitch-assurance-on-Frances-AAA-rating-helps-cheer-markets.html">would not lose its AAA rating before the end of 2013 unless there were &#8220;important shocks&#8221;</a></strong>.</p>
<p><strong>• </strong>Sources told <em>Reuters</em> that <strong>Germany</strong> and <strong>The Netherlands</strong> are not in line for downgrades.</p>
<p><strong>• </strong>Countries that are downgraded face higher borrowing costs, as they are deemed more risky by markets. Any rating of &#8220;BB&#8221; or below from<strong>S&amp;P</strong> means a country&#8217;s debt is considered &#8220;non-investment grade&#8221; &#8211; or junk.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02091/credit_rating_2091539c.jpg" alt="" name="credit rating" width="460" height="287" /></p>
<p><strong>14.35</strong> The <strong>Netherlands</strong> is also in the clear from <strong>S&amp;P</strong>, according to a source quoted by <em>Reuters</em>.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01866/bell_1866674a.gif" alt="" name="bell" width="45" height="40" align="left" /><strong>14.31 </strong>US markets opened lower on the news. The <strong>Dow Jones industrial average</strong> fell 0.3pc on open, while the broader <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> index fell 0.5pc.</p>
<p>European shares also moved lower. The <strong>FTSE 100</strong> in London fell an extra 30 points on the rumours, while the <strong>CAC 40</strong> in Paris shed an additional 25 points and the <strong>FTSE Mib</strong> in Milan dropped 100 points.</p>
<p>The<strong> euro</strong> slumped 0.8pc to $1.2710, near a 16-month low.</p>
<p><strong>14.05 </strong>Italian, Spanish and Greek <strong>10-year bond yields</strong> have spiked on worries that the Greek debt write-off won&#8217;t be voluntary.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/italian_2108433c.jpg" alt="" name="italian" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p>Italian/German <strong>10-year bond yield </strong>spread widens back above 500 basis points.</p>
<p><strong>Greece</strong> will next week continue talks with bank creditors for a debt writedown or &#8220;haircut&#8221; vital to keeping the crisis-hit country afloat, a government official has said.</p>
<p><strong>14.00 </strong>We are hearing reports that several <strong>eurozone </strong>countries could face &#8220;imminent&#8221; downgrade by <strong>S&amp;P</strong>. Ratings agency declines to comment. Source says <strong>Germany </strong>not one of the downgrades.</p>
<p><strong>13.44 </strong>Let&#8217;s bring you up to date with the latest corporate news.</p>
<p>The UK&#8217;s biggest fresh milk supplier <strong>Robert Wiseman Dairies </strong>has said it is in talks to be bought out by German-owned yoghurt maker Muller Dairy.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/cow_2108402c.jpg" alt="" name="cow" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><strong>EDF</strong> has bid for BG&#8217;s stake in Indian gas utility.</p>
<p><strong>13.40 </strong>The <strong>EU office</strong> in Rome has been evacuated after a suspicious package was found. No more details as yet.</p>
<p><strong>13.32 BREAKING NEWS&#8230;</strong></p>
<p><strong>US trade deficit </strong>has widened 10.4pc in November to $47.8bn &#8211; bigger than estimates and a five-mont high. <strong>Export prices </strong>-0.5pc in December versus +0.1pc in November. <strong>Import prices </strong>-0.1pc in December versus +0.8pc in November.</p>
<p><strong>13.20 Tesco&#8217;s </strong>UK operations chief <strong>Noel &#8220;Bob&#8221; Robbins</strong> sold stock just over a week before a profit warning sent shares in the world&#8217;s third-biggest retailer plunging, a regulatory filing shows.</p>
<p>He sold 50,000 shares at 404.51p apiece on January 4, netting around £202,000.</p>
<p><strong>13.02 Nick Clegg</strong> is in Ireland today meeting Irish PM <strong>Enda Kenny </strong>and Scotland&#8217;s<strong> Alex Salmond</strong>.</p>
<p>Earlier, <strong>Mr Kenny</strong> said a second bailout for Ireland was not needed. They moved on to the transaction tax, which the Irish PM said his country couldn&#8217;t accept if London was not also involved. <strong>Mr Clegg </strong>then warned that the FTT would lead to EU job losses.</p>
<p><strong>12.27</strong> Some good news for the <strong>UK</strong>!</p>
<p><strong>Aon</strong>, a provider of risk management and HR solutions, has announced it will move its corporate headquarters to<strong> London, to </strong>the new<strong>Cheesegrater </strong>skyscraper.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/aon_2108302c.jpg" alt="" name="aon" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p>In a statement, the company &#8211; which sponsors <strong>Manchester United Football Club </strong>- said the move &#8220;provides greater access to emerging markets and takes better advantage of the strategic proximity to Lloyd&#8217;s and the London market as one of the key international hubs of insurance and risk brokerage&#8221;.</p>
<p><strong>12.14</strong> Former IMF chief <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/dominique-strauss-kahn/9010334/Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-did-not-know-he-was-sleeping-with-prostitutes-because-they-were-all-naked.html">Dominique Strauss-Kahn</a></strong> has said he had no way of knowing he was sleeping with prostitutes because &#8220;the women were naked at the time&#8221;.</p>
<p>The defence came amid allegations his mobile phone records showed he had relationships with 10 <strong>call girls</strong>.</p>
<p>This could help police determine whether <strong>Mr Strauss-Kahn</strong> was aware that the women he had sex with had been paid to do so.</p>
<p>Sleeping with prostitutes is legal in France if the girls are over 18 but some warn <strong>Mr Strauss-Kahn</strong> could face charges if the case expands to cover graft or procuring.</p>
<p><strong>12.07 <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9013102/JPMorgan-Chase-profits-fall-as-investment-bank-income-halves.html">JP Morgan Q4 results</a></strong> are out. Earnings per share 90 cents, as expected. Revenue $21.47bn versus expectations of $22.56bn. Profit of $3.7bn, compared with $4.83bn a year earlier.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/JPMorgan_2108288c.jpg" alt="" name="JPMorgan" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><strong>Bank</strong> says it is &#8220;gratified to see signs of improvement in loan demand and credit quality&#8221;.</p>
<p><strong>11.36 </strong>Some corporate news: <strong>Serco</strong>, the international service company, has won a contract with the <strong>UK Ministry of Defence</strong> to deploy radar technology to prevent wind farms interfering with the UK&#8217;s air defence radars. The new contract is valued at £27m over two years and the total combined contract value to <strong>Serco</strong> is approximately £45m over a three-year period.</p>
<p><strong>11.23 </strong>The Telegraph&#8217;s <strong>Jeremy Warner </strong>has blogged on the currency problems linked <strong><a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100014229/scotlands-sterling-issue-makes-independence-highly-problematic/">Scotland&#8217;s push towards independence</a></strong>.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01808/Jeremy_Warner_60_1808402a.jpg" alt="" name="Jeremy Warner_60" width="60" height="60" /> <em>Monetary union between two fiscally sovereign states would eventually produce much the same problems as we&#8217;ve seen in the eurozone – a possibly quite severe divergence in competitiveness accompanied by a balance of payments and intra-union debt crisis. Indeed, it might well be that English regulators (for indeed they would be after separation) would be forced to impose controls on Scottish lending by UK banks to prevent just such a crisis developing, quite a challenge given that the two largest UK banks are Scottish domiciled.</em></p>
<p><strong>11.16 </strong>Quick update on the markets.<strong> FTSE 100</strong> is up 0.2pc, <strong>CAC</strong> up 1pc,<strong>DAX </strong>up 0.3pc, <strong>IBEX</strong> up 1pc and <strong>MIB</strong> up 0.6pc.</p>
<p><strong>Chris Beauchamp</strong>, market analyst at IG Index, said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />As the sun rises on the final day of the trading week, the FTSE 100 is up slightly, but the atmosphere remains nervous.</em></p>
<p><em>&#8220;For the second successive day, the morning focus was on a debt auction by one of the eurozone’s more troublesome members. Today, Italy sold its debt. The auction saw yields fall, prompting the bulls to snort approvingly, but demand also dropped, which gave bears something to roar about. Ultimately, the market remained somewhat unimpressed, with the FTSE 100 remaining some distance from its early morning highs. Today’s blow-up is engineer Invensys, rudely shoved out of the leading index by Glencore in May last year, down 23pc after a profit warning.</em></p>
<p><strong>11.08 Germany </strong>doesn’t support giving the <strong>European Central Bank</strong> a role in backing the euro area’s permanent rescue fund, said Steffen Seibert, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief spokesman.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus said that Germany’s goal remains to introduce a financial transaction tax in all 27 European Union countries.</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />The federal government’s position is completely unchanged as far as the ECB is concerned.</em></p>
<p><strong>11.04</strong> Meanwhile, the <strong>UK&#8217;s yields </strong>are also looking good. Ten-year bond yields have fallen below 2pc.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/yield_2108147c.jpg" alt="" name="yield" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><strong>10.38</strong> <strong>Italy </strong>has sold €4.75bn of three-year bonds at a yield of 4.83pc. Yield falls from 5.62pc, but bid to cover only 1.22.</p>
<p><strong>10.06</strong> More figures out. <strong>Eurozone trade balance</strong> +€6.9bn versus expected €0.5bn.</p>
<p><strong>10.03 Greek PM Lucas Papademos</strong> has said his country&#8217;s central problem is a loss of competitiveness and not just labour costs. He says they need to get growth going and that the illegal fuel trade is a problem.</p>
<p><strong>10.00 </strong>Here&#8217;s the Telegraph&#8217;s Banking Editor <strong>Harry Wilson</strong>:</p>
<p><iframe id="tweetframe15776235318478438410698727331326448804" src="http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/html/TwitterEmbed/Version1/web540.html" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" width="460" height="132"></iframe></p>
<p><strong>09.55 Lloyds Bank</strong> has said that its chief executive <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9012414/Lloyds-chief-Antonio-Horta-Osorio-gives-up-2.4m-bonus.html">Antonio Horta-Osorio has declined to take his bonus for 2011</a></strong>.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/horta_2108008c.jpg" alt="" name="horta" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><strong>Horta-Osorio</strong> said that a bonus entitlement should reflect the performance of the bank and the &#8220;tough financial circumstances that many people are facing&#8221;. He adds that <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8959682/Lloyds-chief-Antonio-Horta-Osorios-torture-caused-by-sleep-deprivation.html">his leave of absence due to sleep deprivation</a></strong> had an impact on both inside and outside the performance of the bank, including for shareholders.</p>
<p><strong>09.44 BREAKING NEWS&#8230;</strong></p>
<p><strong>Spain </strong>banks&#8217; <strong>ECB loans</strong> hit highest level since July 2010, says central bank. The ECB lent Spanish lenders €118.86bn in December, up 21.3pc from November.</p>
<p><strong>Meanwhile</strong>, Spain&#8217;s economic secretary has said the government expects the economy to contract in Q4 and Q1.</p>
<p><strong>09.35 </strong>The <strong>Swiss stock exchange </strong>is due to open at 11am after a technical hitch this morning.</p>
<p><strong>09.32 UK PPI output prices</strong> month-on-month fall 0.1pc against a flat predicition. Year-on-year they rose 3pc against expectations of a 3.2pc rise.</p>
<p><strong>Input prices </strong>month-on-month fell 0.6pc versus expected fall of 0.2pc. Year-on-year rose 8.7pc versus expected 9.1pc.</p>
<p><strong>Howard Archer </strong>at IHS Global Insight said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />This indicates that weakened activity is causing manufacturers to become more circumspect in their pricing while softer input prices is reducing the pressure on companies to raise their prices to protect their margins. The benign set of producer price data will be well received by the Bank of England. The data support belief that consumer price inflation is headed down sharply over the coming months, and fuels already strong belief that the BoE will enact at least £50bn more Quantitative Easing in February.</em></p>
<p><strong>09.25 </strong>Further to that BDO story (see 09.08), the <strong>National Institute of Economic and Social Research </strong>has said British economy just about scraped growth in the fourth quarter of 2011.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02108/union_2108001c.jpg" alt="" name="union" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p>NIESR estimated gross domestic product grew by 0.1pc in the last three months of the year, compared with the third quarter.</p>
<p><strong>09.23 Spanish HICP inflation </strong>has eased from an annual rate of +2.9pc in November to +2.4pc in December.</p>
<p><strong>09.08 </strong>The <strong>UK </strong>is &#8220;teetering on the brink&#8221; of recession, <strong><a href="http://www.bdo.uk.com/press/uk-economy-teetering-brink">according to new data from accountancy firm BDO</a></strong>.</p>
<p>The organisation&#8217;s business <strong>Output Index</strong> dropped for the seventh consecutive month to 91.4 in December, from 92.5 in November. The index &#8211; which measures turnover expectations three months ahead &#8211; has now remained below the crucial 95 mark, which indicates growth, since July 2011.</p>
<p>At the same time, the firm&#8217;s <strong>Optimism Index</strong> - which predicts business confidence in two quarters&#8217; time &#8211; dropped to 91.5 in December from 92.5 in November.</p>
<p>The company said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />To arrest the forecasted slump, we urge the Bank of England to consider a further round of quantitative easing, and we encourage the banks to continue to step up their lending to UK businesses. We also want to see the Government introducing measures in 2012 that encourage private sector investment in infrastructure.</em></p>
<p><strong>09.01 </strong>Ahead of an <strong>Italian bond auction </strong>of three-year debt at 10.15am, two-year yields have slid below 4pc, three year at 4.8pc, while10-year yields are now below 6.5pc.</p>
<p><strong>08.34</strong> The start of trading on the <strong>Swiss stock exchange</strong> has been delayed due to unspecified technical problems, SIX Swiss Exchange has said.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Swiss bank <strong>UBS </strong>has said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />We believe there is a strong chance that sovereign debt markets have begun a short-lived but possibly powerful risk rally.</em></p>
<p><strong>08.26 </strong>Meanwhile, in the corporate world, <strong>Tesco</strong>&#8216;s performance in the markets this morning has been a huge anti-climax. The shares are up just 0.1pc.</p>
<p>Remember, <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9009147/Tesco-loses-4bn-of-its-value-after-warning-on-profits.html">they fell 16pc yesterday after a profits warning</a></strong>.</p>
<p><strong>08.21 ECB </strong>deposits have hit yet another record high &#8211; €489.906bn.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/ECB_2107968c.jpg" alt="" name="ECB" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><em>(For a bigger version of this graph, click the right-hand-side of the main picture at the top of this blog)</em></p>
<p><strong>08.19</strong> <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/9010968/Actor-Paul-Bettany-shows-margin-of-error.html">Actor Paul Bettany is currently starring in financial film<em>Margin Call</em></a></strong><em> </em>- set in New York on the eve of the 2008 crash and which the <strong>New York Times </strong>called &#8220;the best movie ever made about Wall Street&#8221; (Michael Douglas won&#8217;t be happy about that).</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/bettany_2107959c.jpg" alt="" name="bettany" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p>Anyway, I thought actors did tons of research before they filmed their scenes &#8211; not so apprently. <strong>Bettany </strong>says:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />I’m just a blond actor. I’m not someone who should be venturing their opinion about Wall Street.</em></p>
<p>Hmmm, so glad you gave us an insight, Mr Bettany.</p>
<p><strong>08.00</strong> European markets are open. <strong>FTSE 100 </strong>up 0.7pc, <strong>CAC</strong> up 0.9pc,<strong>DAX </strong>up 1pc<strong>, IBEX</strong> up 0.9pc, <strong>MIB</strong> up 1.3pc. Markets reacting to gains in Asia on fresh eurozone hopes.</p>
<p><strong>Invensys </strong>shares have fallen 26pc after a profits warning ths morning (see 7.44).</p>
<p><strong>07.55</strong> Have a quick look back to 7.16 and the news that <strong>Apple </strong>has closed some its Chinese stores after fans fought with security and threw eggs at an official store. Here&#8217;s a video of the chaos:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>07.51</strong> Great piece on the <strong>Telegraph</strong> site today by <strong>Emma Rowley </strong>on<strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/9011139/Miners-see-gold-price-hitting-2000-this-year.html">miners expecting the gold price to hit $2,000</a></strong> this year:</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/T_logo_1817836a.gif" alt="" name="T_logo" width="45" height="40" align="left" /><em>The overwhelming majority (80pc) of gold mining executives think the price will keep climbing in 2012, with just 6pc anticipating a fall, a survey by PwC found. Last year, mounting fears over the eurozone crisis helped the &#8220;safe haven&#8221; metal hit $1,900 in September.</em></p>
<p><strong>07.48 </strong>We are hearing rumours that the <strong>IMF </strong>has warned the <strong>Greek</strong>government that a 50pc debt writedown may not be enough.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/greece_2107949c.jpg" alt="" name="greece" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><strong>07.44</strong> Let&#8217;s bring you up to do date with breaking corporate news. Sales at fashion retailer <strong>Ted Baker</strong> rose 15.7pc over Christmas. It is now prearing for expansion to Tokyo and Beijing.</p>
<p>Technology company <strong>Invensys </strong>has signed signalling framework contracts with Network Rail in the Scotland, Central West and Wales and West areas. But the company expects reported operating profit for the full year &#8220;to be significantly below last year&#8221;.</p>
<p><strong>07.29</strong> The FT&#8217;s opinion pieces are usually a good read. This morning they have Jens Nordvig, from Nomura, stating that &#8220;<strong><a href="http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/11caab5e-3c87-11e1-9bcc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1jJyn2N5v">planning for the worst is the best way to save the eurozone</a></strong>&#8220;. He writes:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Europe needs to spell out a contingency plan for a eurozone break-up. Since fears about a break-up are already present and affecting investors’ flows, the cost-benefit analysis of announcing such contingency plans is very different to what it would have been in 1999. At this juncture, contingency plans would help to reduce uncertainty, rather than add to it.</em></p>
<p><strong>07.24 </strong>Telegraph TV Editor <strong>Robert Miller</strong> has conducted a great interview with <strong>Martin Gray</strong>, manager of the £723m Miton Special Situations Fund, which has made a 287pc return since launch in 1997. He tells <strong>Robert </strong>that some European Union&#8217;s banks will need to be nationalised:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>07.16</strong> Earlier this morning, <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/9011987/Angry-mob-pelts-eggs-at-Apple-store-in-China.html">Apple suspended sales of the iPhone 4S in its China stores</a></strong> after fans desperate to get their hands on the new device fought with a security guard and threw eggs at an official store.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/china-apple_2107944c.jpg" alt="" name="china-apple" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p>Company spokeswoman Carolyn Wu said:</p>
<p><em><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01817/quotes_1817837a.gif" alt="Quote" width="45" height="40" align="left" />Unfortunately we were unable to open our store at Sanlitun [in Beijing] due to the large crowd, and to ensure the safety of our customers and employees, iPhones will not be available in our retail stores in Beijing and Shanghai for the time being.</em></p>
<p>Ironically, I&#8217;m sure there&#8217;s an <strong>app</strong> for checking when they will reopen&#8230;</p>
<p><strong>06.55</strong> Over in the US, <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9012102/Obama-seeks-to-raise-US-debt-limit-by-1.2-trillion.html">President Barack Obama has formally notified Congress of proposals for a $1.2 trillion (£782bn) rise in borrowing</a></strong>, risking another battle with Republicans.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/obama_2107938c.jpg" alt="" name="obama" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p>In a letter, <strong>Mr Obama</strong> said &#8220;further borrowing is required to meet existing [spending] commitments&#8221;. Congress has 15 days to vote on the proposal, which would raise the debt ceiling to $16.4 trillion.</p>
<p>Can the <strong>US </strong>afford to agree to this? Actually, can they afford not to?</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01866/arrow_up_1866672a.gif" alt="" name="arrow_up" width="45" height="40" align="left" />06.38 European markets will open at 8am this morning. In Asia, the <strong>Nikkei </strong>is up 1.4pc, the <strong>Hang Seng </strong>rose 0.5pc, the<strong>Shanghai Composite </strong>fell 1.2pc and the <strong>Kospi </strong>gained 0.6pc.</p>
<p><strong>06.52 </strong>A round-up of the <strong>newspapers&#8217; financial headlines </strong>today:</p>
<p><strong>Daily Telegraph</strong>: <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9009147/Tesco-loses-4bn-of-its-value-after-warning-on-profits.html">Tesco&#8217;s shares suffer heaviest crash since 1987</a></p>
<p><strong>The Independent</strong>: <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/shares-in-tesco-dive-as-profit-alert-stuns-the-city-6288998.html">Shares in Tesco dive as profit alert stuns the City</a></p>
<p><strong>Financial Times</strong>: <a href="http://www.ft.com/home/uk">Tesco hit by first profit alert in 20 years</a></p>
<p><strong>The Guardian</strong>: <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/jan/12/4g-superfast-broadband-airwaves-auction-ofcom">4G sell-off offers mobile internet across the UK</a></p>
<p><strong>The Times</strong>: <a href="http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/">Glimmer of hope in Europe as investors take plunge on debt</a></p>
<p><strong>06.48</strong> Will be interesting to see how Tesco shares perform today &#8211; the retailer&#8217;s profits warning was the <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9009147/Tesco-loses-4bn-of-its-value-after-warning-on-profits.html">big story yesterday</a></strong>. That caused the shares to fall 16pc yesterday, wiping more than £4bn off the company&#8217;s value.</p>
<p>The other big news on Thursday was <strong><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9011246/Spain-and-Italy-succeed-in-selling-22bn-of-debt.html">Spain and Italy succeeding in selling €22bn of debt</a></strong>.</p>
<p><strong>Italy </strong>is to hold another bond auction later today.</p>
<p><strong>06.45 </strong>The Telegraph&#8217;s Wall Street editor <strong>Richard Blackden </strong>has been<strong><a href="http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/richardblackden/100014209/europeans-cant-handle-a-debt-crisis-but-they-still-trounce-americans-when-it-comes-to-making-stylish-cars/">blogging from the Detroit Motor Show</a></strong>.</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01824/Richard-Blackden_6_1824254a.jpg" alt="" name="Richard-Blackden_60" width="60" height="60" /> <em>Whether the car industry is sputtering or roaring ahead, the show – like its major rivals in Geneva and Paris – is designed to cast a spell over customers. Carmakers also use it to send a message to rivals. This week was no exception.</em></p>
<p><em>Ford spared little expense on the stand that showcased the new Lincoln MKZ. Chuck Hoberman, an inventor and designer better known for his work on the stages that rock band U2 uses for its world tours, was tapped to work some magic.</em></p>
<p><em>&#8216;It&#8217;s not just about bricks and mortar and it looking great,&#8217; Stephen Odell, Ford&#8217;s head of Europe told me. &#8216;It&#8217;s a statement of intent about what Ford wants Lincoln to become.&#8217;</em></p>
<p><strong>06.43 David Cameron </strong>is making his first visit to<strong> Saudi Arabia</strong> since becoming Prime Minister to discuss, among other things, trade.</p>
<p><strong>Mr Cameron</strong> will meet <strong>King Abdullah</strong> and <strong>Crown Prince Nayif</strong> in talks which Downing Street hopes will &#8220;broaden and deepen&#8221; the UK-Saudi relationship.</p>
<p><strong>Saudi Arabia</strong> is Britain&#8217;s biggest trading partner in the Middle East with bilateral trade worth £15bn a year and Saudi investment in the UK worth more than £62bn.</p>
<p><strong>06.40 </strong>A quick look at some of the <strong>newspapers </strong>this morning:</p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/papers-jan13_2107934c.jpg" alt="" name="papers-jan13" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><img src="http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02107/papers_2107936c.jpg" alt="" name="papers" width="460" height="287" align="center" /></p>
<p><strong>06.30 </strong>Good morning and welcome back to our live coverage of the debt crisis.</p>
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		<title>China Money Supply Growth Exceed Estimates</title>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Jan 2012 06:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>WoodlawnPost</dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[China Money Supply Growth Exceed Estimates]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[China’s December lending and money supply growth exceeded economists’ estimates, signaling monetary conditions may be easing as the nation’s central bank said it must be prepared for possible shocks from the U.S. and Europe. New loans (CNLNNEW) totaled 640.5 billion yuan ($101 billion) for the month, exceeding the estimates of all 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. M2, a measure [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/china/">China</a>’s December lending and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/money-supply/">money supply</a> growth exceeded economists’ estimates, signaling monetary conditions may be easing as the nation’s central bank said it must be prepared for possible shocks from the U.S. and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/europe/">Europe</a>.</p>
<p><a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNLNNEW:IND">New loans (CNLNNEW)</a> totaled 640.5 billion yuan ($101 billion) for the month, exceeding the estimates of all 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. M2, a measure of <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNMS2YOY:IND">money supply (CNMS2YOY)</a>, rose 13.6 percent, compared with the 12.9 percent median of 18 estimates.</p>
<p>People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday the nation must be ready to combat possible shocks from Europe’s debt crisis and an uncertain U.S. economic outlook, echoing comments by Premier <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/wen-jiabao/">Wen Jiabao</a>. The central bank will “very likely” follow up last month’s reduction in lenders’ <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/reserve-requirements/">reserve requirements</a> with another cut this week, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. said today.</p>
<p>“This is better-than-expected monetary data, suggesting monetary conditions have started to ease,” said Liu Li-Gang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., who previously worked at the <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/world-bank/">World Bank</a>. Liu said he expects that the central bank may cut the reserve requirement again before the Lunar New Year on Jan. 23. “Such easing will help ensure a soft landing for the Chinese economy,” he said.</p>
<p>The <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/goutongjiaoliu/524/2012/20120108170351045302718/20120108170351045302718_.html" rel="external">statement</a> posted to the central bank’s website yesterday didn’t contain a figure for China’s foreign-exchange reserves, which are usually released with lending and money supply data issued at the end of each quarter.</p>
<h2>External Shocks</h2>
<p>Stocks in China rose. The <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SHCOMP:IND">Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP)</a> was 1.5 percent higher at 10:53 a.m. local time. The measure lost 1.6 percent last week.</p>
<p>The benchmark money-market rate had the biggest weekly <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNRR007:IND">decline (CNRR007)</a> since November last week as the central bank refrained from selling bills to help ease a cash shortage ahead of the week-long New Year public holiday. The seven-day repo rate rose 19 basis points to 4.50 percent as of 10 a.m. in <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/shanghai/">Shanghai</a>.</p>
<p>The PBOC said Jan. 6 it will suspend debt sales ahead of the festival and buy securities from the market or financial institutions to boost liquidity if needed.</p>
<p>Zhou yesterday said in an interview with the official Xinhua News Agency that the global economy will face “a string” of difficulties in 2012 as a result of the European debt crisis, uncertainties in the U.S. and slowing growth in <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/emerging-markets/">emerging markets</a>. China must be ready to pick appropriate policy instruments to combat external shocks, Zhou was cited as saying.</p>
<h2>‘Relatively Difficult’</h2>
<p>Fighting <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNCPIYOY:IND">inflation (CNCPIYOY)</a> is not as urgent now as it was in early 2011, Xinhua cited Zhou as saying after a two-day meeting of financial regulators in Beijing. The National Financial Work meeting, which was attended by senior officials including Premier Wen, is held every five years to form development plans for the financial sector, Xinhua reported.</p>
<p>Wen last week pledged to fine tune monetary policy to preserve growth as business conditions in the first quarter may be “relatively difficult.” The nation’s export growth slowed in November to the weakest pace since 2009.</p>
<p>China is scheduled to release data for December exports, imports and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/trade-balance/">trade balance</a> tomorrow. It’s also due to issue December inflation figures on Jan. 12 and data for annual 2011 and fourth-quarter economic growth on Jan. 17, according to the statistics bureau.</p>
<p>The central bank’s data yesterday showed that December money supply grew at the fastest pace since July. The 12.7 percent pace reported for November was the weakest since 2001.</p>
<h2>Ease Liquidity</h2>
<p>Lending in December was the highest monthly figure since <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNLNNEW:IND">April (CNLNNEW)</a>. The median estimate of 18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for 575 billion yuan of loans in the month.</p>
<p>For the year, lending totaled 7.47 trillion yuan, according to the statement. The central bank may target lending in 2012 of 9 trillion yuan to 9.5 trillion yuan, said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/hong-kong/">Hong Kong</a>.</p>
<p>The central bank still needs to ease liquidity in the money market to achieve more lending this year, Kowalczyk said. He said there is likely to be a cut of 250 basis points this year in the amount banks have to hold as reserves, with the first cut before the Lunar New Year holiday. The PBOC’s previous reduction, announced Nov. 30, was the first since 2008.</p>
<p>JPMorgan expects three reductions in the reserve ratio in the first half of this year and a 15 percent increase in new lending to 8.2 trillion yuan for the full year, Hong Kong-based economists led by Zhu Haibin said in a note today.</p>
<h2>Reduced Possibility</h2>
<p>In contrast, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/societe-generale/">Societe Generale</a> says the central bank’s Jan. 6 announcement “significantly reduced” the probability of a cut in reserve requirements ahead of the New Year holiday and has pushed back its call for a reduction to later in the first quarter. The bank is sticking to its call for four cuts totaling 200 basis points this year, Hong Kong-based economist Yao Wei said in a note today.</p>
<p>Easing in monetary conditions as indicated by the December data could reduce the urgency for further policy easing, said <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/ken-peng/">Ken Peng</a>, a Beijing-based economist at BNP Paribas SA.</p>
<p>In addition to lending and money supply, the December data showed Chinese banks added 1.43 trillion yuan of deposits in the month. These funds largely came from the release of fiscal deposits into the commercial banking system as government agencies conducted concentrated spending at the end of the year, Peng said.</p>
<p>A “tepid” M1 money supply growth of 7.9 percent in December suggests that the increased bank deposits may have a “lifting impact” on January money supply, Peng said.</p>
<p>In a separate statement yesterday, the central bank said it will continue to implement prudent monetary policy this year while maintaining policy continuity and controlling <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CNCPIYOY:IND">inflation expectations (CNCPIYOY)</a>. It will also make adjustments more targeted, flexible and forward looking, the central bank said.</p>
<p>&#8211;<a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/henry-sanderson/">Henry Sanderson</a>. With assistance from Victoria Ruan in Beijing, Fion Li in Hong Kong. Editors: <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/john-liu/">John Liu</a>, Nerys Avery.</p>
<p>To contact Bloomberg News staff on this story: Henry Sanderson in Beijing at<a title="Send E-mail" href="mailto:hsanderson@bloomberg.net">hsanderson@bloomberg.net</a></p>
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